Research
Job Market Paper
Incentives, Distributions, and the Accuracy of Subjective Health Risks
Beliefs about personal health risks shape health decisions, and researchers have long studied these beliefs through surveys. However, none have tested whether monetary incentives increase thoughtful or truthful responses. This paper tests whether such incentives improve the accuracy of elicited beliefs about personal health risks. I also evaluate the role of confidence in health expectations by comparing two response modes - point estimates, and complete belief distributions - in a 2×2 treatment design. In an online sample of U.S. adults, I elicit subjects’ beliefs about their risk of common chronic health conditions, which I compare to highly personalized statistical estimates. Monetary incentives reduce error size by 4.8 percentage points when subjects report complete belief distributions, but have no effect on point estimates. Importantly, beliefs more strongly predict preventive health behaviors when they exhibit high confidence, suggesting that eliciting both risk perceptions and confidence may improve our understanding of health decisions.
Work in Progress
USPSTF Recommendations and Statin Expenditures
We evaluate the effects of a 2016 USPSTF recommendation statement updating the clinical guidelines for the prescription of statins to prevent the development of cardiovascular disease. This guideline coincided with a mandate to eliminate cost-sharing for the recommended group, as required under the ACA. Using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, we find a substantial reduction in out-of-pocket cost only for recommended individuals with private insurance, relative to those relying on public insurance sourecs. However, nearly half of all individuals who meet recommendation guidelines still face non-zero out-of-pocket costs.
Defaults, Social Observability, and Norm Messaging: Evidence from Coffee Shop Tips
I explore the social determinants of tipping behavior via a norm-nudge natural field experiment and field data collected from a number of small coffee shops. I find that simple messaging of local descriptive norms are insufficient for altering tipping behavior in my setting. I also observe that "smart tipping" approaches available in point-of-sale systems increase tip revenues dramatically by leveraging discontinuities in tipping behavior. I also leverage natural variation in customer timing to explore the effects of observability on norm compliance.
Social Dilemmas and Endogenous Resources
This study investigates how the origin of shared resources in social dilemma games influences individual behavior. By distinguishing between endogenous resources, created through deliberate collective action, and exogenous resources, existing independently of participants' choices, we explore how these origins impact decisions involving trust and reciprocity. We construct a novel two-stage social dilemma game that allows us to determine whether the origination of a shared resource impacts the choice to further contribute or exploit.